The semiconductor market has been depressed for too long, and the recent improvement in market conditions has made the industry particularly excited.
"Bankruptcy," "layoffs," and "negative growth" are words that accompany industries struggling in the cold winter. However, since April this year, the market seems to have been blessed by spring and is exuding vitality. Many companies have seen an increase in orders, increased sales revenue, and a significant increase in capacity utilization. In this case, market research institutions have raised their market expectations for 2009.
The industry generally believes that the semiconductor market has bottomed out in the first quarter. Data from VLSI Research shows. Global chip weekly shipments have reached the bottom in January, and chip market sales in April were even more unexpected, exceeding the six-year average of the same period by 14%. Although the chip market is still quite challenging due to the global economic recession, it has shown some bright spots, such as the emergence of urgent orders, rising prices, and improved capacity utilization. Therefore, VLSI Research raised its 2009 IC sales growth forecast from -17% to -13%. Gartner also raised its growth forecast to -22.4% from -24.1%.
The more representative one is the foundry industry. iSuppli's survey shows that the foundry market ushered in strong growth in the second quarter of this year after shrinking for three consecutive quarters. iSuppli predicts that the foundry market revenue will reach US$3.6 billion in the second quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 59.3%. After the foundry obtained the order, the capacity utilization rate also increased, and the foundry giants began to restart idle production capacity. TSMC Chairman Zhang Zhongmou gave a speech calling on laid-off employees to return to the company during difficult times. SMIC also canceled its salary reduction plan, and UMC issued additional bonuses to motivate employees. I remember that as early as March at SEMICON China, SMIC CEO Zhang Rujing said that "the worst moment is over." At that time, the industry was skeptical about this optimistic statement, but the market performance in April and May seemed to confirm that the industry was taking a step forward. One step out of the bottom.
It is gratifying that the market is in full swing, but how violent is this round of growth, how long can it last, and has the market recovered its strength?
To answer this question, we must first understand the source of power for this round of growth. VLSI Research and Gartner both pointed out in their reports that in the near future, the global terminal product market has not shown obvious signs of demand recovery, and markets such as automobiles and consumer electronics are still deserted. VLSI Research and Gartner agree that the main driving force for this round of growth comes from inventory reconstruction. All manufacturers have controlled inventory at a low level during the most difficult times and are currently restocking in an appropriate amount. In addition, the price increase caused by the reduction of production capacity has also given a certain boost to this round of growth, especially in the memory market. The effect of production reduction is very obvious, and the price growth momentum is expected to be maintained for a long time.
However, it cannot be said that the market has truly recovered unless demand rises, and demand is closely related to the economic situation. SEMI consultant Mo Dakang pointed out that when dealing with this industrial recovery, we should not only look at the factors of the semiconductor industry itself, but also pay attention to the recovery of the global economy, including real estate, unemployment, and especially the recovery of the US economy. Zhang Zhongmou also said that although the industry has bottomed out, the current general environment is still not good, and the industry still has a long way to go before it can truly recover. Indeed, under the weight of the economic recession, it is difficult for chip demand to recover quickly. Inventory reconstruction alone cannot sustainably drive the market. Only time can repair the economic damage and boost the confidence of the consumer market. According to Zhang Zhongmou's judgment, the chip market will have to wait until at least 2012 to recover.
In this economic crisis, China has shown its attitude as a major country and shouldered its responsibilities as a major country. The central government has invested heavily in boosting domestic demand, stabilizing the domestic economy and providing a safe haven for the global economy. Measures related to the electronic information industry, such as the issuance of 3G licenses, the revitalization and adjustment plan for the electronic information industry, and the introduction of the "home appliances to the countryside" policy, have expanded the domestic market's demand for computers, mobile phones and other electronic consumer goods, directly driving the chip The industry is picking up. Gartner specifically pointed out in the report that consumer market demand will remain sluggish in the short term, but the Chinese market is an exception. iSuppli's forecast shows that China's wafer fab capacity utilization rate has rebounded after falling below 50% in the first quarter, and this growth trend will continue in the next five years.
Shanghai is the center of China's semiconductor industry, and the current market conditions are quite optimistic. Xue Zi, deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Integrated Circuit Industry Association, said: "The free fall since October last year has passed, and the scared confidence has returned." With the recovery of demand and the increase in confidence, the market has gained significant momentum. improve. Shanghai Zhangjiang High-Tech Park recently disclosed that sales of various companies in the area's integrated circuit manufacturing, design, packaging and other industrial chains have begun to increase to varying degrees. Judging from the integrated circuit manufacturing companies that account for half of Shanghai's integrated circuit industry, there are 7 companies with a total of 12 production lines. Sales in January this year were 430 million yuan, in February 364 million yuan, in March they rose to 569 million yuan, and in April It further rose to 789 million yuan. The data in May was about 900 million yuan. It is expected to increase to 1 billion yuan in June, reaching the level before the financial crisis struck.
The semiconductor industry is seeing a bright spring after experiencing a cold winter. Despite the joy, it still needs to be treated with caution, because the market is still far from a real recovery. Under my country's series of policies to boost domestic demand, my country's semiconductor industry is strongly performing "Chinese-style growth." From the perspective of narrowing the gap with the global semiconductor industry, this is undoubtedly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
